Draft Day Strategy

It is NHL Fantasy draft time again where all you think you know gets tested to the max.  Here is how I prepare for this all-important exercise.

The very first step you must take before you enter your draft or auction is to create your very own cheat sheets with “Tiers of Players.”  You should have one for goalies, forwards, defensemen, and one that combines all of the above.  Once your draft or auction begins, you will be placed under a great deal of stress and, with the clock ticking, you don’t want to waste time with a lot of self-doubt or false impressions.

Always track the full draft on your cheat sheets and cross out any players who have already been taken as you go. This is crucial to having a successful draft.

Most leagues are 10-12 teams. If you are picking early in the first round, snag an elite forward first. If you’re picking late in the first round, you might want to snag your number one goalie or an elite defender such as  P.K. Subban or Erik Karlsson (and you do want them – see below).

In 2014-15, if you choose to pick a goalie in your first round, your options are Henrik Lundqvist, Tuukka Rask, Carey Price or Jonathan Quick. Picking one of these elite goalies will allow you more time when it comes to drafting their backups (see “goalie third look” below).

Drafting Goalies

You will need three goalies.

First look: Draft your number one goalie from the first tier “green” or second tier “yellow” in the chart below. As long as you get one of the top eleven goalies, it really doesn’t matter which one.

Second look: Your second goalie pick should come from the second tier “yellow” or the third tier “blue” and will become your number two goalie.

Third look: Draft the backup for your number one goalie who will then become your number three goalie. You have to be disciplined about this. It will feel wrong but it is very right. How long you wait to make sure you can do this, will depend on the backup goalie’s placement on the tiers. The higher up he is, the sooner you will have to pull the trigger. If somebody else snags him, keep a watch on the waivers for him to be dropped. Otherwise you should try to trade for him.

If your number one goalie gets injured during the season you can relax. You already have his backup. All you need to do now is go to the waiver wire and get the backup for your number two goalie for insurance – most of the time, that’s where you will find him.

Drafting Forwards

As already noted, in the first round you can either pick an elite forward or an elite goalie. If you choose a forward, it should be from the likes of Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Steven Stamkos, Patrick Kane, or Corey Perry.

Total number of forwards is eight or nine (depending on your league standard). How these get divided between left, right and centers depends on your league rules. The more specific your league is, the harder it is to draft and play. Bear in mind, there are 300 forwards as opposed to 75 defensemen; almost 3-to-one viable options.

First look: The first power play squad from playoff contenders.

Second look: First power unit from a non-playoff team.

Third look: Secondary power play unit from playoff teams.

Now before you skip ahead… I have given you a list of goalies and and defensemen but not forwards.   Oh, come on.  Stop whining. Outside of the elite few and a handful of viable specialists, you are looking for a group of eight or nine forwards who need to generate roughly 60 points each and their names do not matter. I am dead serious.  Focus on skill sets, job security and defined roles, period.  When it comes to forwards, you are building a fantasy team not collecting hockey cards.  Trust me.  At the end of the year, it will be all about who has the most productive collection of forwards not the team with the flashiest names. In the coming weeks I will speak a lot more about this topic – and many others – in  Inside Hockey’s new Webinar Series for the ambitious fantasy player.  Stay tuned to this column for more details.

Drafting Defensemen

You will need five or six defensemen on your roster and you want as many of these from the top two tiers as possible.

First look: In 2013-14, two players are unique and their abilities can make a huge difference in your season. They are P.K. Subban and Erik Karlsson. Don’t wait too late to get them in the draft. At this position, you need two-way talent and they are the best. If you miss these two, Shea Weber is your fall back. Remember playing time and plus/minus stats are critical in making this selection.

Second look: You want your second defenseman to come from the following group: Kris Letang, Dustin Byfuglien (if he qualifies in your league), Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Zdeno Chara, Duncan Keith, Keith Yandle and Victor Hedman. You will need to spend a fifth or sixth rounder to get one of these guys. Remember, availability of two-way talent at the back end is scarce these days.

Third look: Second power play units on playoff teams.

Draft Day Wrap-up

As soon as your draft ends, you should look at the remaining players in your league’s pool and identify 13 players – one goalie (he’s your messiah) and twelve disciples. Rest assured that some of your disciples are also on your opponents’ lists and you will not be able to get all of these. There are always folks with draft day jitters who jump into the waiver wire as soon as it’s available. From all the players who had been drafted and have since been cut loose, take the best of them to replace your disciples. This is a process you will repeat during the entire season and it is important that you maintain this list of thirteen back up players. During the course of the season, there will be 500 players on the waiver wire at any given time. Focus on your thirteen and you’ve made managing your team infinitely less complicated.

Goalie Chart

The following is a list of 80 goalies, most have fixed roles already assigned by their coaches but many do not. There are a number of brand name goalies without actual NHL jobs at the moment.  Please do not try to outwit me and draft these goalies. If you do, you will be playing with fire.  Last year in a very competitive expert league hosted by ESPN, one expert loaded up on forwards and drafted two goalies without actual NHL jobs. This “overthinking” cost his team dearly.

EST. GS = The number of games I feel each goalie might start.  WINS = Wins.  INJ RISK: Higher than usual injury risk.

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	EST. GS	WINS	SO	1W+2SO	INJ RISK
1	Tuukka Rask	BOS	63	35	8	51
2	Jonathan Quick	LAK	63	36	6	48	Y
3	Carey Price	MON	64	36	6	48	Y
4	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	65	37	5	47
5	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	64	37	4	45
6	Sergei Bobrovsky	CBJ	62	33	5	43
7	Semyon Varlamov	COL	61	36	3	42	Y
8	Ben Bishop	TBL	64	34	4	42
9	Pekka Rinne	NSH	64	33	4	41	Y
10	Corey Crawford	CHI	59	35	3	41
11	Kari Lehtonen	DAL	64	33	4	41	Y
12	Jaroslav Halak	NYI	59	31	5	41	Y
13	Cory Schneider	NJD	65	31	5	41
14	Antti Niemi	SJS	59	33	3	39
15	Steve Mason	PHI	63	32	3	38
16	Frederik Andersen	ANA	48	27	4	35
17	Roberto Luongo	FLA	64	29	3	35
18	Brian Elliott	STL	50	26	4	34
19	Jimmy Howard	DET	59	27	3	33	Y
20	Mike Smith	ARI	63	25	4	33	Y
21	Ryan Miller	VAN	59	28	2	32
22	Jonathan Bernier	TOR	57	26	3	32
23	Darcy Kuemper	MIN	47	25	3	31
24	Braden Holtby	WAS	64	26	2	30
25	Ondrej Pavelec	WPG	59	26	2	30
26	Craig Anderson	OTT	56	25	2	29	Y
27	Jonas Hiller	CGY	53	21	3	27
28	Ben Scrivens	EDM	51	21	3	27
29	Anton Khudobin	CAR	41	20	2	24
30	John Gibson	ANA	32	21	1	23
31	Jake Allen	STL	32	19	2	23
32	Michal Neuvirth	BUF	48	19	1	21
33	James Reimer	TOR	25	15	2	19
34	Viktor Fasth	EDM	31	17	1	19	Y
35	Antti Raanta	CHI	23	16	1	18
36	Alex Stalock	SJS	23	14	1	16
37	Cam Ward	CAR	41	14	1	16	Y
38	Robin Lehner	OTT	26	13	1	15
39	Martin Jones	LAK	19	12	1	14
40	Niklas Svedberg	BOS	19	12	1	14
41	Reto Berra	COL	21	12	1	14
42	Jonas Gustavsson	DET	23	12	1	14
43	Jhonas Enroth	BUF	34	12	1	14
44	Karri Ramo	CGY	23	12	1	14
45	Jussi Rynnas	DAL	18	11	1	13
46	Peter Budaj	WPG	23	11	1	13
47	Thomas Greiss	PIT	18	11	1	13
48	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	17	12	0	12	Y
49	Chad Johnson	NYI	23	12	0	12
50	Cam Talbot	NYR	17	11	0	11
51	Eddie Lack	VAN	23	11	0	11
52	Justin Peters	WAS	18	9	1	11
53	Josh Harding	MIN	17	9	1	11	Y
54	Dustin Tokarski	MON	16	8	1	10
55	Keith Kinkaid	NJD	17	10	0	10
56	Ray Emery	PHI	19	9	0	9
57	Curtis McElhinney	CBJ	20	9	0	9
58	Evgeni Nabokov	TBL	18	8	0	8
59	Al Montoya	FLA	18	8	0	8
60	Devan Dubnyk	ARI	18	6	0	6
61	Carter Hutton	NSH	15	6	0	6
62	Ilya Bryzgalov	UFA	10	6	0	6
63	Martin Brodeur	UFA	20	6	0	6	Y
64	Petr Mrazek	DET	6	4	0	4
65	Tomas Vokoun	UFA	15	4	0	4	Y
66	Tim Thomas	UFA	15	4	0	4	Y
67	Nikolai Khabibulin	UFA	15	4	0	4	Y
68	Mark Visentin	ARI	5	2	0	2
69	Matt Hackett	BUF	6	2	0	2
70	Johan Gustafsson	MIN	7	2	0	2
71	Jacob Markstrom	VAN	5	2	0	2
72	Marek Mazanec	NSH	3	1	0	1
73	Kristers Gudlevskis	TBL	2	1	0	1
74	Anders Lindback	DAL	3	1	0	1
75	Michael Hutchinson	WPG	2	1	0	1
76	Jason LaBarbera	ANA	2	1	0	1
77	Kevin Poulin	NYI	3	1	0	1
78	Jeff Zatkoff	PIT	2	1	0	1
79	Philipp Grubauer	WAS	2	1	0	1	Y
80	Dan Ellis	FLA	1	0	0	0

Defensemen Chart

The following is a list of 83 defensemen.  Like their brethren goaltenders, most goalies have fixed roles already assigned by their coaches but many do not. Remember that defensemen who tally less than 30 points are generally almost useless in modern fantasy games, so we have a very steep drop off in viable options after around 70 defensemen.   The tough guy factor:  There are lots of tough defensemen but there are a few that deserve special mention.  Defensemen who play a lot of minutes – including the power play – can score a few points and rack up a lot of PIM’s.  These guys can really help your team and must be considered strongly when you round out your team.  In 2014, you should look to grab Radko Gudas, Dion Phaneuf and/or Kevin Bieksa to name three.  The key to these projections is as follows:

PTS = Points.  PP Unit = which unit I feel each defensemen might skate with.  INJ RISK: Higher than usual injury risk.

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	PP UNIT	PTS	INJ RISK
1	Erik Karlsson	OTT	1	73
2	P.K. Subban	MON	1	57
3	Shea Weber	NSH	1	56
4	Keith Yandle	ARI	1	52
5	Alex Pietrangelo	STL	1	51
6	Alex Goligoski	DAL	1	51	Y
7	Jake Gardiner	TOR	1	51
8	Victor Hedman	TBL	1	50
9	Kris Letang	PIT	1	50	Y
10	Duncan Keith	CHI	1	47
11	Ryan Suter	MIN	1	47
12	Roman Josi	NSH	1	46
13	Niklas Kronwall	DET	1	45	Y
14	Kevin Shattenkirk	STL	1	45
15	Jacob Trouba	WPG	2	45
16	Seth Jones	NSH	2	45
17	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	ARI	1	44
18	Brent Burns	SJS	1	44
19	Mark Streit	PHI	1	44
20	Mike Green	WAS	1	44	Y
21	Zdeno Chara	BOS	1	44
22	Mark Giordano	CGY	1	43	Y
23	James Wisniewski	CBJ	1	43	Y
24	Morgan Rielly	TOR	2	43
25	Dan Boyle	NYR	1	43
26	John Carlson	WAS	1	42
27	Justin Schultz	EDM	1	42
28	Drew Doughty	LAK	1	42
29	Brian Campbell	FLA	1	42
30	Ryan McDonagh	NYR	1	41
31	Christian Ehrhoff	PIT	1	41
32	Andrei Markov	MON	1	41	Y
33	Torey Krug	BOS	1	40
34	Tyson Barrie	COL	1	40
35	Dougie Hamilton	BOS	2	39
36	Dion Phaneuf	TOR	1	39
37	Sami Vatanen	ANA	1	39
38	Kevin Bieksa	VAN	1	39	Y
39	Tobias Enstrom	WPG	1	38	Y
40	Brent Seabrook	CHI	2	38
41	Cody Franson	TOR	2	38
42	Dennis Wideman	CGY	1	38
43	Tyler Myers	BUF	1	38	Y
44	Erik Johnson	COL	1	37	Y
45	Jay Bouwmeester	STL	2	37
46	Alexander Edler	VAN	1	37	Y
47	Ryan Murray	CBJ	2	37	Y
48	Andrej Sekera	CAR	1	36	Y
49	Cam Fowler	ANA	1	36	Y
50	Jack Johnson	CBJ	1	36
51	Slava Voynov	LAK	1	36
52	Hampus Lindholm	ANA	2	36
53	Connor Murphy	ARI	2	36
54	Nick Leddy	NYI	1	35
55	Marek Zidlicky	NJD	1	35	Y
56	Jake Muzzin	LAK	2	35
57	Danny DeKeyser	DET	2	35
58	Justin Faulk	CAR	1	34
59	Matt Niskanen	WAS	2	34
60	Trevor Daley	DAL	2	34
61	Patrick Wiercioch	OTT	1	34
62	Michael Del Zotto	PHI	1	34
63	Jason Demers	SJS	2	34
64	Eric Gelinas	NJD	1	34
65	TJ Brodie	CGY	2	33
66	Jason Garrison	TBL	1	33
67	Matthew Carle	TBL		33
68	Dan Hamhuis	VAN	2	32
69	Zach Bogosian	WPG	2	32	Y
70	Jon Merrill	NJD	2	32
71	Jared Spurgeon	MIN	2	31	Y
72	Fedor Tyutin	CBJ	2	31
73	Ryan Ellis	NSH	2	29
74	Andy Greene	NJD	2	29
75	Dmitry Kulikov	FLA	1	28	Y
76	Matt Donovan	NYI	2	28
77	Michael Stone	ARI	2	27
78	Olli Maatta	PIT	2	27
79	Dan Girardi	NYR	2	27
80	Radko Gudas	TBL	2	26
81	Aaron Ekblad	FLA	2	25
82	Andrew MacDonald	PHI	2	25	Y
83	Jonas Brodin	MIN	2	24
84	Griffin Reinhart	NYI	2	24