by Matthew Starr
To begin the 2006 fantasy hockey season, we will look at the adjusted values of top players who changed teams in the off-season. Next to the name of the player in parenthesis will be the former and current team.
Chris Pronger (Edmonton/Anaheim) - One of the most consistent defensemen in the NHL over the last ten years joins Scott Niedermayer, another defensive model of consistency. For starters, you can expect both Chris and Scott to see their +/- rating go up and finish in the +20 to + 30 range, if not higher. Both will be a sufficient source of assists (40-50 assists from each) and remain among the top ten fantasy defensemen; they will contribute in all categories. The +/- rating of the Mighty Duck forwards will increase as well as will the value of either Bryzgalov or Giguere depending on who gets the job in net.
Zdeno Chara (Ottawa/Boston) - Chara goes from one of the most elite offensive organizations in hockey to the Boston Bruins, a team that had problems scoring last season especially after the departure of Joe Thornton. The Senators nearly scored 100 more goals than the Bruins last season. That said, Chara remains a top fifteen fantasy defenseman because of his massive penalty minutes combined with his ability as a playmaker. True, he won’t be passing the puck out to Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley anymore, but he should still be good for at least ten goals and 20 assists, not bad for someone giving you 150 penalty minutes from the defensive position.
Marc Savard (Atlanta/Boston) - Savard’s fantasy value will decrease because Marco Sturm and Glen Murray are not Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa. Savard is very talented and is still a good bet to tally 25 goals, 50 assists and close to 100 penalty minutes. He will also contribute a good amount of power-play points. Even with the decrease in assists and the talent surrounding him, I like what Savard brings to the table and would feel confident labeling him as a top five center along with Thornton, Crosby, Staal and Spezza.
Alex Tanguay (Colorado/Calgary) - At first glance, this seems like a bad deal for Tanguay’s fantasy value as he is no longer on the Sakic/Hejduk line. However, this deal will benefit both Tanguay and Jarome Iginla. Iginla finally gets a forward on his line that can make plays and put the puck in the net and Tanguay immediately becomes the second best offensive option on the team after being the third man for the last few years in Colorado. Calgary has a staunch defense and premiere goaltender which will boost Tanguay’s +/- rating. If he plays at least 75 games, Tanguay should finish with around 30 goals, 60 assists and a rating of about +30. Iginla, if he stays healthy, will reach 40 goals, 40 assists and a +/- rating close to 30 as well.
Martin Havlat (Ottawa/Chicago) - Havlat has always been a personal favorite because much like Henrik Zetterberg, he is one of the most talented yet underappreciated players from year to year. He warrants a third or fourth round pick but in most drafts manages to slip past those rounds. He has also been in the shadow of some stellar offensive performers in Ottawa, usually playing on the second line. Havlat is now the main man in Chicago and the only risk with him is his proneness to injuries. While he might give you only 65-75 games, what he will do in those games is well worth the investment. As the go to guy for the Blackhawks, Havlat should be good for 30 goals, 30 assists and 30 power-play points.
Dominik Hasek (Ottawa/Detroit) - Round and round we go, where the Dominator stops nobody knows. Another year, another team for Dominik Hasek and most likely another year plagued with injury problems. The change in scenery will not affect Hasek’s fantasy performance as he goes from one elite team to the next, but if you are looking to draft him, make sure you handcuff Chris Osgood to him in a later round.
Todd Bertuzzi (Vancouver/Florida) - A change of scenery will help him the most. Todd simply wasn’t himself last season, although he didn’t have a terrible year, just not a Bertuzzi-like year. He and Jokinen will make for a terrific duo down in Florida and Todd will regain form and show us all why he was first round material before the unfortunate on-ice incident. Look for a 40 goal, 50 assist season from him with his usual fantasy friendly bucket of penalty minutes.
Pavol Demitra (Los Angeles/Minnesota) - Demitra was having a career year until injuries sidelined him for most of the second half. He remains one of the most talented players in the NHL and a very valuable fantasy commodity as long as he is able to skate. Demitra will be on the first line for the Wild alongside Marian Gaborik and Brian Rolston. That is a line you need to pay attention to as they can skate, shoot and will score points in bunches. Pavol can play 70 games and score 80 points but he could just as easily end up playing 30 games, it’s your call come draft day.
Brendan Shanahan (Detroit/New York Rangers) - Brendan has been one of the most consistent players in the NHL during his career and is pretty much a lock to always be in the 35 goal/35 assist range along with at least 100 penalty minutes. It’s uncertain whether he will be playing alongside Jagr at first, but coach Renney makes so many shift changes throughout the season, you can be sure he will see time with Jagr, Prucha and pretty much every player on the team. Chalk Shanahan up for another typical year statistically; if he spends a good amount of time on the Jagr line, expect an even greater number of assists.
Ed Jovanovski (Vancouver/Phoenix) - Ed is yet another player who can’t seem to stay on the ice for an entire season. When he plays, he is among the elite fantasy defensemen, contributing in assists and penalty minutes. The change of teams won’t affect him much if at all; he just needs to stay healthy.
Manny Legace (Detroit/St. Louis) - Manny was the second best fantasy goaltender last season, but this year he is not even the best fantasy goaltender named Manny. This is what happens when you move from the Red Wings to the Blues. Without Lidstrom, Chelios and the other talent that surrounded him last season, Legace will be exposed. He has been downright awful in the preseason and is not even a lock to be the Blues starting and premiere goaltender. STAY AWAY!
PLAYER RANKS BY POSITION
Center
1. Joe Thornton - Penalty minutes were down last season but when you get 96 assists, owners are content.
2. Sidney Crosby - 100 points/100 penalty minutes in rookie season.
3. Eric Staal - Cole is back and fast as ever, and the +/- rating will improve.
4. Jason Spezza - Health concerns here, would like to see a few more goals.
5. Olli Jokinen - He’s no joke and playing with Big Bertuzzi now.
6. Peter Forsberg – He is among the elite, if healthy.
7. Pavel Datsyuk - Red Wings not as talented as in previous years, but he still is.
8. Mats Sundin - He missed ten games and all of a sudden people think he doesn’t belong here.
9. Brad Richards - Will help you big time in assists and power-play points.
10. Patrick Marleau - Marleau/Michalek second line looks good on paper, let’s see the results on the ice.
11. Pavol Demitra - Love his skills, but not his injuries.
12. Evgeni Malkin - We have yet another Russian Rocket.
13. Daniel Briere - His 25 goals and 33 assists in less than 50 games last season was pretty amazing.
14. Joe Sakic - The vet can still get it done.
15. Marc Savard – I’m hesitant to put him here now that Ilya and Marian aren’t around anymore.
Left Wing
1. Alexander Ovechkin - He’s the Russian Rocket, 2005 edition.
2. Dany Heatley - That top line in Ottawa is still the best offensively, although the Sharks may have something to say about that.
3. Ilya Kovalchuk - If he gets his +/- rating up, he could be the top fantasy player.
4. Markus Naslund - Was the top fantasy player once upon a time.
5. Rick Nash - Love the combination of goals and penalty minutes.
6. Henrik Zetterberg - I’ve always been a fan of this potential 40/40 winger.
7. Erik Cole - Do not sleep on Erik Cole.
8. Simon Gagne - He and Forsberg are second only to Thornton/Cheechoo.
9. Patrick Elias - He can be used as a left-wing in most formats and that’s exactly where you should put him.
10. Ladislav Nagy - Could put up amazing numbers if he plays 70+ games.
11. Mark Bell - Third man with Thornton/Cheechoo can’t help but gather stats.
12. Brendan Shanahan - Power-play with Jagr and Prucha should be quite efficient.
13. Brenden Morrow - Won’t blow you away with offense but penalty minutes put him up here.
14. Alex Tanguay - I like the possibilities with Iginla.
15. Paul Kariya - He’s Mr. Consistency.
Right Wing
1. Jaromir Jagr – You’re simply the best! Better than all the rest.
2. Jonathan Cheechoo - Once again, let’s all get aboard the Cheechoo Train.
3. Daniel Alfredsson - Enough said about that top line in Ottawa.
4. Marian Hossa - Savard out, but he will be fine.
5. Jarome Iginla - Has been consistent, but really only one incredible season.
6. Marian Gaborik - He and Demitra will tally up the goals if they actually play.
7. Brian Gionta - Belongs in the top five if he can repeat last year’s performance.
8. Todd Bertuzzi - Expect him to return to pre-incident form.
9. Shane Doan - Contributes across the board.
10. Marek Svatos - He’s a primetime goal scorer.
11. Teemu Selanne - Last year was his best in eight years.
12. Ales Hemsky - Like Brad Richards, great for assists and power-play points.
13. Steve Sullivan - Nashville isn’t paid much attention.
14. Alex Kovalev - Seems to be a good play as long as he isn’t on the Rangers.
15. Maxim Afinogenov - Nice name and nice stats.
Defense
1. Nicklas Lidstrom - 64 assists and 50 power-play points from a defenseman?
2. Bryan McCabe - Did it all last season, except for his +/- rating.
3. Chris Pronger - Expect the same stats with a better +/- rating.
4. Scott Niedermayer - Ditto.
5. Sergei Gonchar - Needs to score a little more.
6. Mathieu Schneider - Got to love that +33 rating.
7. Dion Phaneuf - Not too many defensemen can shoot like him.
8. Wade Redden - Anyone on the Senators gets a fantasy boost.
9. Sergei Zubov - He’s an assist machine.
10. Joni Pitkanen - Good mix of offensive tools and penalty minutes.
11. Lubomir Visnovsky - The Kings are a talented bunch this season.
12. Zdeno Chara - Offense drops in Boston, but the penalty minutes will not.
13. Andrej Meszaros - Looks even better than last season thus far.
14. Tomas Kaberle - Can he reach 50 assists again? It’s unlikely.
15. Kimmo Timonen - Assists and power-play points from the defense.
Goaltending
1. Miikka Kiprusoff - He’s a rock.
2. Martin Brodeur - The GAA and SAV % fluctuate year to year, but the wins are always there.
3. Tomas Vokoun - He’s pretty consistent himself.
4. Manny Fernandez - Should add wins with Minnesota’s improved roster.
5. Henrik Lundqvist - Maybe I’m a homer, but he looked fantastic in preseason.
6. Ryan Miller - He’s on one of the NHL’s most talented and exciting teams.
7. Roberto Luongo - I’m looking for a rebound season here.
8. Marty Turco - Ditto.
9. Dwayne Roloson - I seem to be the only person that believes in his talent.
10. Martin Gerber - Don’t trust him, but trust his teammates.
11. Nikolai Khabibulin - One bad season does not a career make.
12. Kari Lehtonen - Could this be the breakout season for him and the Thrashers?
13. Rick DiPietro - Anyone signed to a fifteen year contract has to be good, right?
14. Cam Ward - He is here because his team is good and he doesn’t split time.
15. Hannu Toivonen/Tim Thomas - Toivonen looks iffy in preseason and Tim Thomas looks good. Whoever starts for them will post solid numbers.