Series Outlook
by Kevin Greenstein

After winning the President’s Trophy in decisive fashion, the Detroit Red Wings have continued their strong play into the playoffs, handily defeating the division rival Nashville Predators in round one and then absolutely trouncing the Colorado Avalanche in a round two sweep. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars have enjoyed a storybook run to the Conference Finals, taking down two heavily favored Pacific Division rivals (the defending Cup champion Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks). Can the Stars defeat the mighty Red Wings?

FORWARDS

Red Wings: In terms of players emerging under the bright lights of the playoffs, no one’s rise has been more meteoric than Johan Franzen’s. He’s tallied 11 goals and 14 points in 10 games (along with a plus-nine rating), including two hat tricks against the Avalanche. Franzen crashes the net with reckless abandon, and is the perfect complement to high-skill Wings forwards Henrik Zetterberg (13 points in 10 games, plus-10) and Pavel Datsyuk (13 points in 10 games, plus-seven). And young Jiri Hudler (nine points in 10 games) has also been quite impressive, providing some much-needed scoring depth.

Stars: The Stars’ offense hasn’t been particularly prolific in these playoffs, but its production has been unquestionably timely. Mike Ribeiro leads the way, with 14 points in 12 games, and has emerged as the focal point of Dallas’ forward attack. Captain (and linemate) Brenden Morrow came up big in Game Six against the Sharks, scoring the game-winning goal in the fourth overtime period, and has been consistently strong in this postseason (11 points in 12 games, including seven goals). Key contributions have also come from Brad Richards (11 points), Mike Modano (10 points), and Jere Lehtinen (eight points), giving the Stars a surprisingly diverse array of weapons to choose from.

Advantage: Even

DEFENSE

Red Wings: Nicklas Lidstrom has been stellar as per normal, tallying seven points in 10 games (plus-seven rating). But the big story on the Wings’ blue line has been the rapid emergence of Niklas Kronwall, whose booming hits (team-leading 22) and top-notch playmaking (eight assists in 10 games) have made him a force to be reckoned with. And then there’s the ageless Chris Chelios, averaging 2:28 of shorthanded ice time per game, second on the Wings behind Lidstrom. At the ripe old age of 46, Chelios is showing no signs of slowing down.

Stars: After returning from a foot injury, power play quarterback Sergei Zubov picked up right where he left off, tallying four points in five games. Meanwhile, Stephane Robidas’ confidence is soaring after he served so well in Zubov’s absence (eight points in 12 games, team-leading 23 blocked shots, 59 hits), giving the Stars two effective offensive defensemen to depend upon. And hard-hitting Mattias Norstrom, former captain of the Los Angeles Kings, has also been quite good. He’s scored five points in 12 games while compiling a team-leading plus-four rating; his overtime goal won Game Three for the Stars and gave them a seemingly commanding 3-0 series lead.

Advantage: Red Wings

GOALTENDING

Red Wings: With a 6-0 record, Chris Osgood is dialed in and has taken over the starting job in goal from Dominik Hasek. He’s given up only 1.52 goals-per-game, while stopping nearly 94% of the shots he’s faced. And as long as Osgood continues to play this well, it’s hard to imagine Hasek seeing the ice again… or anyone taking down the mighty Red Wings. But the 35-year-old Osgood has never before in his career sustained this high level of play, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to end now.

Stars: The monkey is officially off Marty Turco’s back. He’s backstopped the Stars to two impressive series victories over favored opponents, and his performance in the 4OT series win over the Sharks was nothing short of remarkable. He stopped 61 of 62 shots overall, including 30 shots in the four overtime sessions, disproving again (and hopefully for good) the notion that he can’t win big games. And if the Stars somehow manage to win the Cup, he should be a shoe-in to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.

Advantage: Stars

PREDICTION

Stars in Seven

Why the Stars Will Win
by David Carty

They've been beat down and they've fought back. Dallas can't be knocked on their age anymore. Two straight gutsy overtime games proves that there's still something left in the tank. Mike Ribeiro's career season was a pleasant and necessary for the offensive-starved squad. Brad Richards was another necessary addition to make this team a potential champion. Brendan Morrow has been a force this postseason and, if you don't believe me, ask Milan Michalek, who's still seeing stars (no pun intended). Morrow (7 postseason goals, 2 in OT) has become one of the league's biggest threats on both ends of the ice and shows a determination like no other - could you score after 51 minutes of skating around the pond? Chris Osgood and Marty Turco's numbers are pretty much identical except one difference -- Turco has been challenged with over twice as many shots as Osgood (323 to 159). In addition, Osgood has only seen 30 shots against him twice this postseason. Turco saw 62 shots in game six against the Sharks alone and has been challenged by last year's NHL Champions and the 2005-06 NHL MVP. In the end, Turco at age 32 is still the NHL's most well-rounded goaltender and won't wear down. The contributions of Sergei Zubov (4 P in 5 G) and the special teams unit (25% on PP, best of the teams left in the postseason) are not to be overlooked and give the stars all the weapons they need to beat the Red Wings and make their first Stanley Cup appearance since 2000.

Game One
Red Wings 4, Stars 1

Why the Red Wings Won: As has been the case throughout these playoffs, puck possession was the key for the Wings. By playing keep-away for much of the game, they were able to tire out the Stars and draw numerous power plays. And from there, the talent kicked in. With Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski quarterbacking the Wings-lethal power play—and with Tomas Holmstrom and Johan Franzen tirelessly crashing the Stars’ crease—Marty Turco had no chance. One point-blank shot from Rafalski on a 5-on-3 advantage—and two power play tip-ins by Franzen and Holmstrom—gave the Wings a commanding 3-0 lead. And when Valtteri Filppula split the seam and broke in alone on Turco to put Detroit up 4-0, the game was effectively over.

Why the Stars Lost: Giving the Wings seven power plays (including two 5-on-3 opportunities) certainly didn’t help. And neither did the Stars’ concerning propensity to give the puck away. But the biggest problem for Dallas was their inability to generate high-quality scoring chances against Chris Osgood. In four power play opportunities, only five Stars shots reached the net, a trend that absolutely must change if Dallas is to have a prayer against their tremendously skilled opponent.

Key Moment: Just over four minutes into the game, with Mattias Norstom already in the penalty box, Mark Fistric took a foolish roughing penalty, giving Detroit a 5-on-3 edge. Nine seconds later, Rafalski scored the series-opening goal, sending the Joe Louis Arena crowd into a frenzy of excitement. And from that point forward, the Wings controlled the pace of play and maintained all of the positive momentum.

What’s Next: For the Wings, more of the same excellence. And for the Stars, better play around the net when shorthanded. None of the four Wings goals were remotely Turco’s fault, and so there’s no reason for the Stars to lose confidence in him. Instead, they need to do a better job of keeping his crease clear; on all three power play goals, he was completely screened. For if Holmstrom and Franzen remain able to easily lay claim to the Stars’ most vulnerable real estate, this series will end in the Wings’ favor in four easy games.

Game Two
Red Wings 2, Stars 1
by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Red Wings won: It wasn't as decisive as their win in Game One, but the Wings once again put tremendous pressure on the Stars with their ever-dangerous transition game, firing 34 shots at Marty Turco en route to their 2-1 victory. The first goal came on a high-speed transition play, when Darren Helm broke in on Turco after receiving a nifty feed from Jiri Hudler and ripped a wrist shot over Turco's left shoulder. And the second came with Tomas Holmstrom once again wreaking havoc in Turco's crease, as Henrik Zetterberg blistered a one-timer past Turco.

Why the Stars lost: Dallas played far better in Game 2, generating numerous high-quality scoring chances. But because they missed the net on many of their finest opportunities, Chris Osgood only needed to make 18 saves for the victory.

Key Moment: Five minutes into the third period, Mike Modano deked around Chris Chelios and fired a nifty backhand shot at Osgood... while skating backwards towards the Wings' goal. But Osgood kicked out his left leg and made what was to be his finest save of the night.

What's. Next: though it had no impact on the game's final outcome, an aggressive encounter between Osgood and Stars forward Mike Ribeiro could lead to supplementary discipline. With the clock expiring, Osgood butt-ended Ribeiro as he skated past the Wings' goal, then Ribeiro retaliated with a swinging slash to Osgood's chest. Depending upon Colin Campbell's interpretation of the events, either or both players could be suspended for Game 3, which is effectively a must-win situation for the Stars (now down 2-0 in the series).

Game Three
Red Wings 5, Stars 2
by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Red Wings Won: As this series has progressed, it’s become quite clear that the Wings’ dominance over the Avalanche in their second round series wasn’t only due to injuries on the Colorado side. Indeed, the Wings are playing some of the sharpest hockey we’ve seen since they last won the Stanley Cup in 2002. From their tape-to-tape passing to their lethal transition game, the Wings control play in all three zones. And in the rare instances when they lapse defensively, Chris Osgood has been there to make nearly every key save. The Wings have now won nine consecutive playoff games, paced to their latest victory by a Pavel Datsyuk hat trick, and it will take a truly legendary comeback for the Dallas Stars to overcome a 3-0 deficit in this now-one-sided series. And perhaps most impressive of all, the Wings have won their last two games despite operating without leading goal-scorer Johan Franzen (post-concussion symptoms).

Why the Stars Lost: Every mistake the Stars make in this series seems to end up in the back of their net, and Game Three was no different. While Dallas’ scrappy style played quite well against the Ducks and the Sharks, two teams that play more of a North-South game, the Red Wings’ controlled East-West passing game has rendered the Stars’ forecheck surprisingly ineffective. And moreover, while the Dallas defense handled the physical play of the Ducks and Stars quite well, they’ve been shown to be too slow to keep up with Detroit’s speedy, talented forward corps.

Key Moment: While the Stars were undergoing a sloppy line change, Niklas Kronwall hit Jiri Hudler with a stellar home run pass. Hudler raced in alone on Stars netminder Marty Turco, who failed to challenge Hudler and instead cautiously remained in his crease. With entirely too much net to shoot at, Hudler backhanded the puck past Turco to score the game-winning third goal in the Wings’ 5-2 victory.

What’s Next: For the Stars, trying to stave off what appears to be an inevitable elimination from these playoffs. And for the Wings, winning Game Four would mean they’ll get some valuable rest (particularly for Franzen) to help ensure that they’ll be as healthy as possible for the Cup Finals and their pursuit of what would be a fourth championship in 11 years.