San Jose enters another postseason with many folks having picked them to win it all. This happened both before the season started, and as the season was concluding. There is rampant speculation that if San Jose does not fare well this postseason, drastic changes will be made. Faring well may just be winning the Stanley Cup, and nothing else. The NHL Network’s “Is this the year?” advertising campaign is very appropriate for the Sharks.

Calgary has had an up and down year in Mike Keenan’s first campaign with the Flames. He seems to have taken on a different style than employed before, but it has not led to tremendous success. It has led to the number two team in penalty minutes over the course of the regular season. They would be well served to reduce that to avoid giving other teams’ power play chances, and not letting their own lines roll over. Miikka Kiprusoff has piled up the victories, but does not have the same goals against and save percentage numbers he had in previous years. He will need to step up his play, or this could be a short series.

The Flames have a blueprint for how to eliminate the Sharks from 2004. Play physical and hard, banging them around, sapping their will to win. It worked in 2006 when Edmonton employed it, and it worked in 2007 when Detroit employed it. While the Sharks have been among the largest teams in the NHL for the past several years, they have not been especially physical. San Jose has made changes this year that shows this plan may no longer work. Now, they have to prove it on the NHL’s biggest stage, the playoffs.

The old adage is that to win, your best players have to be your best players. They have to lead by playing the best they can, being better than anyone else. For San Jose, that’s Joe Thornton and Evgeni Nabokov. Offensively, Thornton has been the straw that stirs the drink. He has been able to get his linemates to score, no matter who it has been. Nabokov led the league in wins and minutes played, while enjoying a steady year, keeping his team in games most nights.

For Calgary, their best players are Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf, and Kiprusoff. Kiprusoff must put the inconsistent regular season behind him, and elevate his play. He will also be motivated to beat his former organization. Iginla is the type of star player that can dominate play, carrying his team at times. He enjoyed his second 50 goal season of his career, leading the Flames in scoring. While the rest of Flames will need to help him out with some timely goals, he needs to lead them again.

Phaneuf is a physical force, delivering punishing hits. He may not get much ice time against Thornton, as Calgary may employ Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich as their top shut-down pair. Phaneuf needs to take advantage of any chances he gets to deliver hits, but not go out of his way, taking away from his defensive responsibilities.

Keys to the Series

1) Physicality - Calgary must play a physical game, trying to make the price to be paid too much for the Sharks. The Sharks have to take the hits, not retaliate, and initiate their own hits. The series starting out with games on consecutive nights might take an early toll.

2) Goaltending - Each netminder is very good, and it may come down to who can steal games for their team.

3) Key Forwards - Thornton and Iginla. Will Calgary be able to limit Thornton’s time and space? Or will he be able to deal out those pinpoint passes for good scoring chances? Can San Jose contain Iginla? The player better able to make things happen between these two could very well win the series for his club.

4) Key Defensemen - Dion Phaneuf and Brian Campbell. Phaneuf’s hitting and shot can affect a series. Will the Sharks be able to avoid the big hit, or will he catch someone in the trolley tracks? Campbell is going to be especially targeted by an aggressive fore-check. Will he be able to use his skating and passing ability to avoid most of the hits, or will the Flames be able to punish him?

5) Veteran Role Players - Jeremy Roenick and Owen Nolan. Former Sharks captain Nolan has played well against his former team this season, and might be motivated to step things up to eliminate his old team. Roenick knows how close he was to being out of the game, and is now in a position to contend for the Stanley Cup. His timely scoring in the regular season (ten game-winning goals), as well as his ability to play any role from first to fourth line, can be a huge asset for the Sharks.

With the Sharks entering the postseason on a roll (18-2-2), and given the Sharks depth, they should be able to withstand the physical punishment that the Flames are sure to deal out, and win the series. It will be tough, hard-fought, and low scoring.

Prediction: Sharks in 5