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Could Phaneuf be Next?

The summer of 2007 in the NHL proved that there is at least one GM in the NHL who is not afraid to send offer sheets to restricted free agents in the NHL. Oilers GM Kevin Lowe was evidence of this last year when he made an unsuccessful attempt at luring Thomas Vanek away from the Buffalo Sabres and then followed that up by prying Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks. Lowe may have opened the door towards GMs in the league making attempts to grab potential restricted free agents and there are many candidates coming up for the summer of 2008. As of right now, some key players who are slated for restricted free agency this summer include Anaheim’s Corey Perry, Chicago’s Brent Seabrook, Florida’s Jay Boumeester, the Rangers' Henrik Lundqvist, and Calgary’s Dion Phaneuf, perhaps the biggest name on the market.

Looking at the restricted free agent defensemen that will be available this year, Dion Phaneuf is definitely the hot commodity amongst the group. Whether a team is rebuilding or just feels that they have a shot at competing for the Stanley Cup, Phaneuf brings a lot of assets to the table. His punishing open ice hits, his ability to play lots of minutes in a variety of situations and his booming shot on the power-play all make Phaneuf a valuable asset for any team choosing to acquire him.

However, like many restricted free agents hitting the market, Phaneuf’s best asset is his age. Phaneuf will be 23-years-old if he makes it to restricted free agency and this could open the floodgates for a potential long term deal for an opposing team. Many young players over the last few years have signed long term deals with their respective organizations such as Rick DiPietro with the Islanders and more recently, Alexander Ovechkin with the Capitals and Mike Richards with the Flyers.

Flames GM Darryl Sutter has to get Phaneuf signed, even if it means trying to dump salary in order to accommodate the young defenseman. Going into next year, Calgary is already committed to long term deals with many of their key players such as Miikka Kiprusoff, Jarome Iginla and Robyn Regehr. Along with these players, Alex Tanguay will also be in the final year of a deal with a cap hit of $5.375 million.

Another area of concern for the 2008-09 season is that Adrian Aucoin will be in the last year of contract with a $4 million cap hit while Cory Sarich will be in the second year of a five year deal that averages $3.6 million. Another problem that Calgary faces is Daymond Langkow and Kristian Huselius will both be unrestricted free agents this summer. Both players will likely be looking for significant raises from their current pay. Huselius is making $1.4 million right now and that number is well below market value for a player who is 23rd in the league in points heading to the All-Star break. Langkow’s 45 points at the break should also earn him a slight raise from the $2.4 million that he is currently earning.

The Flames will have to make some important decisions during the off-season. Going into 2008-09, they have a cap hit of almost $25 million invested in Iginla, Regehr, Aucoin, Sarich, Kiprusoff and Tanguay alone. Since Phaneuf is so young and he is already one of the top defensemen in the league, he should likely take on a long term deal. The key factor in these restricted free agents is that many of them are very young so they are being paid based on potential. Phaneuf’s cap hit on a new contract with the Flames should be around the $7-8 million range which coincides with many other top defensemen such as Niklas Lidstrom (cap hit of $7.6 million) and Zdeno Chara ($7.5 million) per season.

Reports from various media sources in Canada and the United States indicate that Phaneuf is close to signing a deal that will keep him in Calgary for many years to come. A player like Phaneuf could generate an offer sheet for an opposing team well into the $7-10 million range. If the Flames are unable to match the offer, four first round draft picks would come their way via compensation. When you consider the contract and the compensation, acquiring Phaneuf would be very expensive for an opposing team but with a player of Phaneuf’s stature, it is important that the Flames re-sign him before he reaches restricted free agency status.

With the signings of many of their key players, the Flames look as if they are in good shape to maintain their status as one of the better teams in the league. If Phaneuf is indeed close to signing, Calgary will hope that many of their players such as Regehr, Iginla and Kiprusoff do not deteriorate over the later stages of their contracts.

If for some reason Phaneuf does not re-sign with the club, Calgary will have to look towards other options. One could be with free agency where the Sabres' Brian Campbell remains unsigned for next year as does Ottawa’s Wade Redden. The difficult thing about free agency however, is that Phaneuf will not achieve his restricted status until well after the free agent frenzy of July 1. Simply put, Calgary has to keep Phaneuf as he is an integral part of their organization moving forward. With the recent signings of Ovechkin, Mike Richards and Ryan Getzlaf, GMs are showing that they cannot underestimate the value of their young players. If Phaneuf stays in Calgary, it remains to be seen what this will mean for potential free agents Kristian Huselius and Daymond Langkow. Will the 2007-08 season mark the end of their tenures in Calgary? You'll have to wait and see.

Nicely done!

Hey Ashok,
Your article is extremely well written nicely done! As for the Langkow and Huselius situation, I think Calgary will make room for them, as they are not able to lose both of these guys and still be a legitimate contender in the west. Especially when you figure that both Smyth & Sakic should be healthy and back in uniform for the Avalanche. Cap room is going to need to be made in order to keep both of them and I think its number 40 who will be departing the Flames to free up a fair amount of cap space, especially since Tanguay is not producing as he should be and is most certainly not earning his $5.375 mill. I guess as the trade deadline approaches we can only sit and watch.

Will