A look at Early Season GVT Ratings

As promised, the School of Stats now brings to you the unofficial OGVT (Offensive Goals Versus Threshold) ratings, current as of this morning (December 6, 2009). The faculty here has done a lot of work in order to bring this to you, the readers. This project was undertaken with the expectation that it wouldn’t be nearly as difficult as it ended up being. Fortunately, after much time and the help of a few associates, we are now able to bring you some numbers to digest and play around with.

One of the problems we faced was finding a single website that had all of the information needed to complete these calculations. If you don’t recall the School of Stats lesson on Puck Prospectus’ player evaluation rating system (GVT), here is a link to that edition:  http://www.insidehockey.com/columns/4739.

The bottom line is that just to compute the OGVT ratings we need more than just goals, assists and the like. We also need the total time on ice for each player in all three situations (even strength, short-handed and power play).

Another thing for anyone else that may be interested in undertaking this type of project to consider; you had better be fairly adept at Microsoft Excel or a program similar. There are some complex formulas in which it is easier for me to use Excel to do the math than it is any other way. For instance, simply copying and pasting the ATOI (Average Time On Ice) for each player isn’t enough. The ATOI is listed in a typical time format; 20:30 (20 minutes, 30 seconds) and we need it to read in a decimal format. Ergo, 20:30 would read as 20.5.

This is where some of my associates were of great service to me. A gentleman that I work with gave me the formulas I needed to convert time into the decimal form I needed. I also received assistance from the creator of the GVT ratings system, Tom Awad, who was very gracious with his time. He pointed out a couple of minor mistakes I had made in some of the formulas. He also assisted me with something even more critical to the OGVT calculation.

In his breakdown of the GVT ratings published on the Puck Prospectus website on August 4, 2009, Awad doesn’t seem to provide for any weighing of ice time. It makes sense players that get more power play time would thus have more chances to score points. Conversely players that play a higher ratio of short-handed time get less of a chance to score points. Therefore, since the GVT formulas utilize goals and assists in its calculations, it makes sense that GVT factors ice time in a weighted manner.

I emailed Mr. Awad who showed me how he weights the different ice times in his GVT formula. Once I plugged the revised formulas in, my numbers matched more closely with Mr. Awad’s and those of Puck Prospectus. However, I do wish to reiterate that these numbers are unofficial.

I didn’t calculate the ratings for all 700–800 NHL’ers. What I did was take the 200 top scorers among Forwards and removed anyone with fewer than 242:32 which yielded a total of 212 players.

Here are their respective OGVT ratings from highest to lowest:

 

Player

Team

Pos

GP

G

A

P

ADJ. TOI

OGVT

Marian Gaborik

NYR

R

26

21

17

38

549.357

10.14

Sidney Crosby

PIT

C

29

19

17

36

674.227

8.06

Patrick Marleau

SJS

C

31

19

14

33

583.725

7.96

Henrik Sedin

VAN

C

29

14

20

34

553.76

7.74

Joe Thornton

SJS

C

31

7

33

40

639.973

7.70

Alex Ovechkin

WSH

L

21

18

12

30

498.07

7.65

Dany Heatley

SJS

L

31

19

14

33

639.885

7.45

Anze Kopitar

LAK

C

30

14

21

35

631.495

7.34

Corey Perry

ANA

R

28

14

20

34

617.265

7.16

Zach Parise

NJD

L

27

15

16

31

566.76

6.85

Dustin Penner

EDM

R

29

15

15

30

537.748

6.81

Steven Stamkos

TBL

C

28

17

13

30

585.22

6.69

Rick Nash

CBJ

R

29

15

15

30

552.507

6.67

Ilya Kovalchuk

ATL

L

20

16

10

26

469.658

6.35

Jarome Iginla

CGY

R

28

17

13

30

626.808

6.32

Brad Richards

DAL

C

27

7

26

33

586.745

6.01

Nicklas Backstrom

WSH

C

29

8

25

33

612.958

5.93

Ryan Malone

TBL

L

28

16

10

26

533.022

5.77

Mikko Koivu

MIN

C

28

9

21

30

548.558

5.75

Rich Peverley

ATL

C

26

10

16

26

430.057

5.75

Henrik Zetterberg

DET

L

28

10

18

28

535.247

5.41

James Neal

DAL

L

25

13

11

24

455.81

5.37

Evgeni Malkin

PIT

C

23

8

21

29

541.727

5.34

Mike Fisher

OTT

C

25

12

11

23

409.38

5.32

Maxim Afinogenov

ATL

R

26

11

15

26

504.353

5.23

Ryan Getzlaf

ANA

C

28

5

28

33

648.408

5.13

Alexander Semin

WSH

L

20

11

12

23

415.33

5.11

Daniel Alfredsson

OTT

R

27

9

17

26

486.393

5.07

Paul Stastny

COL

C

31

7

24

31

625.615

5.04

Andrew Brunette

MIN

L

28

10

16

26

528.433

4.85

Wojtek Wolski

COL

L

31

11

16

27

580.908

4.84

Tomas Plekanec

MTL

C

29

6

20

26

463.043

4.81

Brooks Laich

WSH

C

29

10

15

25

501.072

4.79

Rene Bourque

CGY

L

22

7

15

22

364.88

4.62

Patrick Kane

CHI

R

28

9

18

27

571.873

4.61

Michael Cammalleri

MTL

L

29

15

10

25

609.592

4.60

Milan Michalek

OTT

L

27

15

5

20

444.348

4.56

Niklas Hagman

TOR

L

27

14

6

20

435.808

4.47

Ryan Smyth

LAK

L

22

9

14

23

450.613

4.47

Stephen Weiss

FLA

C

29

13

11

24

572.275

4.31

Jeff Carter

PHI

C

26

9

14

23

475.033

4.25

Mike Richards

PHI

C

26

11

11

22

481.013

4.20

Matt Moulson

NYI

L

29

14

8

22

536.188

4.18

Jarret Stoll

LAK

C

28

8

14

22

430.763

4.18

Jamie Langenbrunner

NJD

R

27

7

18

25

517.068

4.16

Teemu Selanne

ANA

R

27

14

7

21

508.445

4.12

Martin St Louis

TBL

R

28

5

25

30

657.113

4.12

Kristian Huselius

CBJ

L

25

11

11

22

492.618

4.10

Steven Reinprecht

FLA

C

29

10

13

23

511.23

4.08

Ryan Kesler

VAN

C

29

5

20

25

499.768

4.00

Ales Hemsky

EDM

R

22

7

15

22

434.79

3.98

Travis Zajac

NJD

C

27

8

16

24

520.978

3.98

Antoine Vermette

CBJ

C

29

8

15

23

495.493

3.90

Patrice Bergeron

BOS

C

29

8

15

23

500.298

3.86

Brendan Morrison

WSH

C

29

9

14

23

518.452

3.85

Nathan Horton

FLA

C

29

8

17

25

576.525

3.78

James van Riemsdyk

PHI

L

23

6

13

19

341.592

3.74

Loui Eriksson

DAL

L

29

9

14

23

534.005

3.71

Alexandre Burrows

VAN

L

29

9

11

20

434.973

3.68

Wayne Simmonds

LAK

R

30

9

10

19

404.977

3.64

Patrick Sharp

CHI

L

28

8

14

22

492.268

3.62

Vinny Prospal

NYR

C

28

6

20

26

600.812

3.55

RJ Umberger

CBJ

L

29

9

12

21

486.498

3.52

Tomas Fleischmann

WSH

R

18

10

5

15

305.895

3.47

Brenden Morrow

DAL

L

29

12

9

21

547.958

3.44

David Jones

COL

R

23

10

6

16

344.24

3.43

Milan Hejduk

COL

R

26

12

8

20

516.845

3.42

Mike Ribeiro

DAL

C

29

8

15

23

551.51

3.39

Danny Briere

PHI

R

19

10

6

16

348.335

3.39

Tim Connolly

BUF

C

26

6

15

21

452.143

3.36

Scott Hartnell

PHI

L

26

9

10

19

442.827

3.30

Marc Savard

BOS

C

14

8

6

14

258.047

3.27

Justin Williams

LAK

R

25

8

12

20

466.863

3.23

Bobby Ryan

ANA

R

28

13

7

20

563.61

3.15

Derek Roy

BUF

C

26

6

15

21

479.828

3.10

John Tavares

NYI

L

29

11

11

22

601.958

3.10

Mikael Samuelsson

VAN

R

29

10

10

20

516.65

3.10

Vincent Lecavalier

TBL

C

28

6

18

24

582.748

3.10

J.P. Dumont

NSH

R

22

5

14

19

395.553

3.09

Matt Stajan

TOR

C

27

8

11

19

452.638

3.05

Phil Kessel

TOR

C

16

10

5

15

355.662

3.01

Gilbert Brule

EDM

C

26

7

10

17

376.897

2.96

Thomas Vanek

BUF

L

24

8

10

18

429.358

2.95

Alexander Frolov

LAK

L

29

7

14

21

514.045

2.95

Nik Antropov

ATL

C

26

2

21

23

502.082

2.88

Daymond Langkow

CGY

C

28

9

9

18

456.115

2.87

David Perron

STL

L

27

9

9

18

458.995

2.84

Kris Versteeg

CHI

L

27

9

8

17

428.302

2.81

Niclas Bergfors

NJD

R

27

8

10

18

448.112

2.78

Jonathan Toews

CHI

C

22

7

10

17

399.457

2.75

Jason Pominville

BUF

R

26

7

12

19

471.393

2.72

Mike Knuble

WSH

R

19

5

10

15

306.027

2.67

Mason Raymond

VAN

L

29

9

8

17

447.938

2.63

Jordan Staal

PIT

C

30

8

10

18

466.37

2.62

Evander Kane

ATL

C

26

8

5

13

302.142

2.56

Jason Arnott

NSH

C

23

10

7

17

476.117

2.54

Ales Kotalik

NYR

R

27

6

12

18

445.245

2.49

Ryan O’Reilly

COL

C

31

4

13

17

377.832

2.47

Pavel Datsyuk

DET

C

26

6

14

20

515.948

2.46

Dustin Brown

LAK

L

30

6

15

21

553.87

2.43

Raffi Torres

CBJ

L

26

9

5

14

371.553

2.40

Eric Belanger

MIN

C

28

6

10

16

390.287

2.37

Glen Metropolit

MTL

C

23

6

8

14

325.752

2.34

Joe Pavelski

SJS

C

16

4

9

13

256.822

2.33

Olli Jokinen

CGY

C

28

6

15

21

564.545

2.33

Jakub Voracek

CBJ

R

29

7

11

18

481.347

2.32

Tuomo Ruutu

CAR

R

24

6

11

17

430.195

2.32

David Clarkson

NJD

R

23

7

8

15

381.275

2.30

Chris Stewart

COL

R

26

4

12

16

362.992

2.30

Tomas Holmstrom

DET

L

28

11

5

16

486.272

2.29

Ryane Clowe

SJS

L

31

7

14

21

586.627

2.29

Marco Sturm

BOS

L

29

9

7

16

457.142

2.24

Alexei Ponikarovsky

TOR

L

28

9

8

17

498.707

2.17

Joffrey Lupul

ANA

R

21

8

4

12

316.83

2.12

Mike Rupp

PIT

C

30

8

3

11

282.985

2.11

Steve Bernier

VAN

R

27

8

7

15

419.277

2.11

Chris Kelly

OTT

C

27

3

9

12

236.462

2.05

Curtis Glencross

CGY

L

25

6

7

13

323.657

2.04

Blake Wheeler

BOS

R

29

7

8

15

410.49

2.03

Nigel Dawes

CGY

L

28

8

8

16

466.525

1.99

Brian Gionta

MTL

R

19

8

5

13

364.408

1.99

Antti Miettinen

MIN

R

25

7

7

14

384.94

1.96

Keith Tkachuk

STL

C

26

6

9

15

408.4

1.89

Mikhail Grabovski

TOR

C

28

5

14

19

527.188

1.89

Vernon Fiddler

PHX

L

29

3

9

12

253.795

1.89

Matthew Lombardi

PHX

C

25

5

11

16

429.862

1.85

Matt Cullen

CAR

C

28

7

9

16

465.03

1.85

Brian Rolston

NJD

R

26

9

6

15

466.348

1.85

Ray Whitney

CAR

L

26

7

11

18

537.32

1.81

Artem Anisimov

NYR

C

28

5

8

13

331.937

1.81

Matt Cooke

PIT

L

28

5

7

12

299.847

1.79

Jussi Jokinen

CAR

L

27

6

10

16

458.687

1.75

Matt Duchene

COL

C

31

8

10

18

563.138

1.74

Sam Gagner

EDM

C

28

6

11

17

496.18

1.71

Jason Blake

TOR

L

28

4

13

17

463.505

1.69

Cory Stillman

FLA

L

20

6

7

13

363.072

1.69

Jarkko Ruutu

OTT

L

27

4

6

10

227.832

1.67

Clarke MacArthur

BUF

L

26

8

6

14

435.64

1.66

Shane Doan

PHX

R

29

7

11

18

558.132

1.62

Claude Giroux

PHI

R

26

3

13

16

419.955

1.62

T.J. Oshie

STL

C

23

4

9

13

336.612

1.61

Troy Brouwer

CHI

R

28

7

6

13

389.663

1.60

Derick Brassard

CBJ

C

28

3

14

17

456.728

1.59

Jason Chimera

CBJ

L

29

6

7

13

375.838

1.57

T.J. Galiardi

COL

L

21

3

7

10

221.457

1.56

Devin Setoguchi

SJS

R

19

8

2

10

310.852

1.55

Marty Reasoner

ATL

C

26

1

9

10

190.683

1.52

Brandon Sutter

CAR

C

19

6

4

10

281.41

1.50

Pascal Dupuis

PIT

L

30

7

3

10

299.663

1.49

Robert Lang

PHX

C

29

6

10

16

491.728

1.45

David Moss

CGY

R

23

6

6

12

357.327

1.43

Brad Boyes

STL

R

27

7

9

16

515.443

1.39

Daniel Winnik

PHX

C

29

2

8

10

225.212

1.37

Sean Avery

NYR

L

23

4

8

12

329.742

1.36

Jamie Benn

DAL

L

29

5

11

16

485.812

1.34

Matt Bradley

WSH

R

29

5

5

10

282.608

1.33

Alex Tanguay

TBL

L

28

4

13

17

507.568

1.29

Dan Cleary

DET

R

28

6

9

15

482.93

1.22

Bill Guerin

PIT

R

30

7

11

18

602.732

1.22

Drew Stafford

BUF

R

24

7

5

12

400.873

1.19

Dustin Boyd

CGY

C

27

4

6

10

281.883

1.17

Kris Draper

DET

C

27

5

5

10

299.888

1.17

Radim Vrbata

PHX

R

29

7

7

14

473.043

1.16

Andy McDonald

STL

C

25

6

8

14

455.787

1.15

Tom Wandell

DAL

C

29

4

7

11

321.052

1.13

Vyacheslav Kozlov

ATL

L

26

5

9

14

440.958

1.13

Jay McClement

STL

C

27

5

5

10

306.825

1.11

Owen Nolan

MIN

R

28

7

6

13

451.01

1.05

Chris Kunitz

PIT

L

19

3

9

12

347.055

1.04

Paul Kariya

STL

L

27

8

5

13

471.132

1.02

Brandon Dubinsky

NYR

C

18

3

7

10

281.105

1.02

David Legwand

NSH

C

29

5

10

15

488.932

1.00

Patrick O’Sullivan

EDM

C

29

6

9

15

507.273

0.99

Scottie Upshall

PHX

R

27

7

5

12

422.88

0.99

Steve Downie

TBL

R

28

5

7

12

387.81

0.99

Martin Erat

NSH

R

26

6

7

13

450.917

0.89

Sean Bergenheim

NYI

L

29

4

7

11

347.933

0.88

Rostislav Olesz

FLA

L

29

6

7

13

453.012

0.87

Mark Recchi

BOS

R

29

5

10

15

504.105

0.86

Michal Handzus

LAK

C

30

6

7

13

453.832

0.86

Michael Frolik

FLA

C

29

7

7

14

514.973

0.77

John Madden

CHI

C

28

5

5

10

349.263

0.72

Kyle Brodziak

MIN

C

28

4

6

10

332.585

0.71

Kyle Okposo

NYI

R

28

5

11

16

555.975

0.70

Steve Sullivan

NSH

L

29

6

10

16

574.95

0.69

Manny Malhotra

SJS

C

31

6

5

11

406.92

0.67

Chris Clark

WSH

R

29

3

8

11

355.223

0.66

Jeff Halpern

TBL

C

28

5

5

10

358.555

0.64

Max Pacioretty

MTL

L

29

3

8

11

362.093

0.59

Joel Ward

NSH

R

27

5

7

12

437.155

0.54

Scott Gomez

MTL

C

25

3

11

14

471.955

0.53

Saku Koivu

ANA

C

23

3

8

11

370.073

0.52

Josh Bailey

NYI

C

28

7

3

10

407.93

0.51

David Krejci

BOS

C

27

3

10

13

441.867

0.49

Alexei Kovalev

OTT

R

24

4

9

13

461.808

0.47

Frans Nielsen

NYI

C

23

3

7

10

342.495

0.46

Eric Staal

CAR

C

18

3

8

11

376.698

0.46

Lee Stempniak

TOR

R

28

6

6

12

464.137

0.46

Jason Spezza

OTT

C

25

2

13

15

515.618

0.28

David Backes

STL

R

27

4

7

11

422.4

0.21

Todd Bertuzzi

DET

R

28

4

9

13

490.835

0.20

Todd White

ATL

C

26

3

9

12

439.57

0.20

Richard Park

NYI

R

29

2

8

10

356.933

0.17

                 

Michael Ryder

BOS

R

29

7

4

11

491.358

0.06

Shawn Horcoff

EDM

C

25

5

6

11

460.633

0.02

Patric Hornqvist

NSH

R

28

5

5

10

428.872

0.00

Andrei Kostitsyn

MTL

L

26

2

9

11

414.862

-0.05

Bryan Little

ATL

R

24

2

9

11

422.713

-0.12

Martin Havlat

MIN

R

22

2

9

11

423.95

-0.13

Dustin Byfuglien

CHI

R

28

8

2

10

498.113

-0.15

Sergei Samsonov

CAR

L

28

4

6

10

457.087

-0.42

Ruslan Fedotenko

PIT

L

30

4

6

10

492.972

-0.75

 

 

 

 

1594

2255

3849

95690.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

Threshold Value:

0.0091

             

Of course we would expect to find guys like Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley near the top but how about Marian Gaborik.

Gaborik is showing what he can do in a more offense-friendly system and now that he is finally healthy, he is blowing the doors off of everyone else in OGVT. His performance to date is making the case that Gaborik should challenge for the Hart Trophy; an argument taken up by Puck Prospectus’ Timo Seppa in an article appearing on ESPN.com on 11/30/09.

Some of the names that I find surprisingly near the top of this list are Edmonton’s Dustin Penner (6.8) and the Wild’s Mikko Koivu (5.75). Remember these ratings are a counting stat which means that the current GVT rating can be prorated over a full season. In that case, Penner would finish with a +19.26 OGVT and Koivu would finish with a +16.84 OGVT at their current paces. Penner finished last season with a +0.5 OGVT while Koivu had a 5.7 OGVT. Both players are on pace to better last year’s performances significantly.

Another big surprise is the Thrashers’ Rich Peverley, a waiver wire pickup from Nashville. He is currently sitting at +5.75 but was projected by Puck Prospectus to record just a +5.7 for the whole season. He is on pace to more than triple that projection.

Some of the underwhelming performances turned in to date come from the likes of: Eric Staal (+0.46, $8.25 million cap hit); Jason Spezza (+0.28, $7 million cap hit); Scott Gomez (+0.53, $7+ million cap hit); Shawn Horcoff (+0.2, $5.5 million cap hit); and Sergei Sampsonov (-0.42, $2.5+ million cap hit).

Remember that OGVT is measured in goals that the player is worth, in terms of production, over a threshold or replacement player. So Scott Gomez has only been worth roughly ½ goal more than any AHL player or street free agent that could be paid the league minimum. Essentially, the Canadiens are paying $6.8 million (Gomez’s cap hit minus the $500,000 or so in minimum salary a threshold player would cost) for half a goal.

If you recall my Pythagorean Win Expectation chart (http://www.insidehockey.com/columns/5120), it takes roughly 5.6 goals per win based on win differential. A team that finishes with 10 wins above a .500 record (51 wins in an 82 game schedule) can expect to have a goal differential of +56 or so. Individually, Gomez has only been worth 1/10 of one win above replacement level this year.

Those types of comparisons are what make the GVT rating so exciting to me. I see the potential in this stat being the foundation for a number of additional stats which mirror some of the more common advanced stats in baseball; WAR (Wins Against Replacement) and VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) to name a couple. Look for the School of Stats to delve further into those possibilities in later classes.

Thanks for joining me today as we explored some of the current GVT ratings of today’s players. If you have any questions or comments, please email me at gmiller@insidehockey.com.

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